War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".